Bosnie-Herzégovine vs Italie - Qualifications Coupe du Monde (Europe) - mardi 31 mars 2026 à 18:45
Stade : Stadion Bilino Polje
Score final : Bosnie-Herzégovine 1-1 Italie
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Italie favori avec 57% de chances de victoire (nul 23%). L'algorithme avait prévu Italie favori, le résultat ne l'a pas suivi.
xG du match : 3.4 pour Bosnie-Herzégovine, 1.0 pour Italie. Bosnie-Herzégovine a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Bosnie-Herzégovine | 19% | 7,57 | +6,0% (value bet) |
| Match nul ✓ | 23% | 4,30 | 0,0% |
| Victoire Italie | 57% | 1,47 | -11,0% |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Qualifications Coupe du Monde (Europe) :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnie-Herzégovine marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 66% | 1,85 | +12,0% (value bet) |
| Italie marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 86% | 1,11 | -4,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 57% | 2,15 | +10,0% (value bet) |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 43% | 1,64 | -18,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 81% | 1,27 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 59% | 1,98 | +8,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 37% | 3,55 | +9,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 41% | 1,91 | -11,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 63% | 1,33 | -12,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Bosnie-Herzégovine vs Italie :
| Statistique | Bosnie-Herzégovine | Italie |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 3,38 | 1,02 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 65% | 35% |
| Tirs | 30 | 9 |
| Tirs cadrés | 11 | 3 |
| Corners | 10 | 4 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 100 | 32 |
Coming into this game, Bosnia-Herzegovina has picked up 6 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 5 of those games. Bosnia-Herzegovina has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Bosnia-Herzegovina will be confident of scoring today and will look to keep up their record of scoring in every single home game this season.
Momentum is really building for Bosnia-Herzegovina as they have now gone 4 games without losing. They have won 1 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 6 games for Bosnia-Herzegovina ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Bosnia-Herzegovina will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Italy, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 1 and drawn 3
The last 5 games for Bosnia-Herzegovina has each seen both teams scoring. Will they improve their defence, or will we see more of the same here? This season Bosnia-Herzegovina has seen a total of 6/9 fixtures end with both teams scoring. That's 67% of all matches played.
It's likely that Bosnia-Herzegovina will score today, as they have netted in the last 9 games coming into this one and have scored 8 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, Italy has picked up 12 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.4 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Italy has scored 11 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Italy has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 3 games.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 9 games for Italy ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Italy has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 5 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 5 occasions.
Italy will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Bosnia-Herzegovina, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 4 and drawn 0
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Italy has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 4 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 3/9 games for Italy this season.
It's likely that Italy will score today, as they have netted in the last 8 games coming into this one and have scored 11 goals in the last five games.
Bosnie-Herzégovine a fait match nul contre Italie 1-1 en Qualifications Coupe du Monde (Europe) le mardi 31 mars 2026 à 18:45 au Stadion Bilino Polje. xG du match : 3.4 pour Bosnie-Herzégovine, 1.0 pour Italie. Possession : 65% pour Bosnie-Herzégovine, 35% pour Italie. Tirs : 30 (dont 11 cadrés) pour Bosnie-Herzégovine, 9 (dont 3 cadrés) pour Italie. Indice de forme : Bosnie-Herzégovine 5.1/10, Italie 7.9/10. Sur 5 confrontations directes : 0 victoire Bosnie-Herzégovine, 1 nul, 4 victoires Italie.
Score final : Bosnie-Herzégovine 1-1 Italie. L'algorithme avait prevu Italie (57%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.