Équateur vs Chili - WC Qualification South America - Journee 6 - mardi 21 novembre 2023 à 23:30
Stade : Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
Score final : Équateur 1-0 Chili
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Équateur favori avec 49% de chances de victoire (nul 34%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 1.3 pour Équateur, 0.8 pour Chili. Équateur a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Équateur ✓ | 49% | 1,55 | -16,0% |
| Match nul | 34% | 3,80 | +8,0% (value bet) |
| Victoire Chili | 18% | 6,00 | +1,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de WC Qualification South America :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Équateur marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 72% | 1,17 | -13,0% |
| Chili marque (AS) manqué ✗ | 47% | 1,90 | -6,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) manqué ✗ | 33% | 2,50 | -7,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) réalisé ✓ | 67% | 1,50 | 0,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) manqué ✗ | 56% | 1,42 | -14,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 29% | 2,35 | -14,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 12% | 4,33 | -11,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 71% | 1,57 | +7,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 88% | 1,22 | +6,0% (value bet) |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Équateur vs Chili :
| Statistique | Équateur | Chili |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,28 | 0,83 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 53% | 47% |
| Tirs | 11 | 7 |
| Tirs cadrés | 5 | 3 |
| Corners | 5 | 4 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 32 | 23 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Équateur | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 8 | 0.88 | LWWDD | 4.1/10 |
| Chili | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 | 1.17 | LDWLD | 2.8/10 |
Coming into this game, Ecuador has picked up 8 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Ecuador has scored 4 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Ecuador has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 2 games.
Momentum is really building for Ecuador as they have now gone 4 games without losing. They have won 2 of the last 5 games they have played.
Ecuador will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Chile, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 2 and drawn 2
Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Ecuador recently, with the side failing to score in 3 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?
Ecuador has fired blanks in 3 games this season. That's 60% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 4 goals.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Ecuador has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 2 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/5 games for Ecuador this season.
Ecuador will need to improve their attack if they're to get anything out of this game. They have not scored in the last 2 matches. During the last five games they have scored 4 times and overall this season they have scored 0.8 goals per game.
Coming into this game, Chile has picked up 5 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 1 of those games. Chile has scored 3 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Chile has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 6 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 3 occasions.
Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Chile recently, with the side failing to score in 3 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?
Chile has fired blanks in 3 games this season. That's 60% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 3 goals.
Just 1 of the last 5 games for Chile has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 1/5 games for Chile this season.
Chile will need to improve their attack if they're to get anything out of this game. They have not scored in the last 2 matches. During the last five games they have scored 3 times and overall this season they have scored 0.6 goals per game.
Équateur a battu Chili 1-0 en WC Qualification South America le mardi 21 novembre 2023 à 23:30 au Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria. xG du match : 1.3 pour Équateur, 0.8 pour Chili. Possession : 53% pour Équateur, 47% pour Chili. Tirs : 11 (dont 5 cadrés) pour Équateur, 7 (dont 3 cadrés) pour Chili. Indice de forme : Équateur 4.1/10, Chili 2.8/10. Sur 5 confrontations directes : 2 victoires Équateur, 1 nul, 2 victoires Chili.
Score final : Équateur 1-0 Chili. L'algorithme avait prevu Équateur (49%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.