Aston Villa vs Lille - Conference League - jeudi 11 avril 2024 à 19:00
Score final : Aston Villa 2-1 Lille
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Aston Villa favori avec 51% de chances de victoire (nul 26%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 1.1 pour Aston Villa, 1.4 pour Lille. Lille a créé davantage de danger.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Aston Villa ✓ | 51% | 1,75 | -6,0% |
| Match nul | 26% | 3,75 | -1,0% |
| Victoire Lille | 23% | 4,50 | +1,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Conference League :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 84% | 1,14 | -4,0% |
| Lille marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 69% | 1,50 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 57% | 1,67 | -3,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 43% | 2,10 | -5,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 80% | 1,28 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) réalisé ✓ | 57% | 1,73 | -1,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 35% | 3,10 | +3,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) manqué ✗ | 43% | 2,08 | -5,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 65% | 1,38 | -7,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Aston Villa vs Lille :
| Statistique | Aston Villa | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,09 | 1,39 |
| Buts marqués | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 41% | 59% |
| Tirs | 8 | 10 |
| Tirs cadrés | 5 | 8 |
| Corners | 7 | 3 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 33 | 27 |
Coming into this game, Aston Villa has picked up 11 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Aston Villa has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Aston Villa is in great form, and the home fans will be loving it. They have won the last 5 games that they have played at home.
Aston Villa aura la confiance nécessaire pour marquer aujourd'hui et cherchera à maintenir son record de buts inscrits dans chaque match à domicile cette saison.
Aston Villa has had no trouble finding the back of the net recently and has scored in the last 5 home games. They have failed to find the net in 0 home game this season.
Momentum is really building for Aston Villa as they have now gone 7 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.
Aston Villa is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Lille, having won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 9 goals in those 5 games.
In the last 5 matches for Aston Villa, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 5 matches (50% of all matches) involving Aston Villa has seen BTTS landing.
Coming into this game, Lille has picked up 11 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Lille has scored 10 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Superbe performance de Lille à l'extérieur, où l'équipe est actuellement invaincue depuis 5 matchs. Peuvent-ils enchaîner un nouveau match sans défaite ?
Momentum is really building for Lille as they have now gone 10 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 6 games for Lille ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Lille has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 2 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 5 occasions.
Lille is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Aston Villa, having won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 10 goals in those 5 games.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Lille has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 3 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 5/10 games for Lille this season.
It's likely that Lille will score today, as they have netted in the last 6 games coming into this one and have scored 10 goals in the last five games.
Aston Villa a battu Lille 2-1 en Conference League le jeudi 11 avril 2024 à 19:00. xG du match : 1.1 pour Aston Villa, 1.4 pour Lille. Possession : 41% pour Aston Villa, 59% pour Lille. Tirs : 8 (dont 5 cadrés) pour Aston Villa, 10 (dont 8 cadrés) pour Lille. Indice de forme : Aston Villa 8.4/10, Lille 8.4/10.
Score final : Aston Villa 2-1 Lille. L'algorithme avait prevu Aston Villa (51%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.