Utrecht vs PSV - Eredivisie - Journee 18 - dimanche 21 janvier 2024 à 11:15
Stade : Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht)
Score final : Utrecht 1-1 PSV
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit PSV favori avec 83% de chances de victoire (nul 11%). L'algorithme avait prévu PSV favori, le résultat ne l'a pas suivi.
xG du match : 1.6 pour Utrecht, 1.3 pour PSV. Utrecht a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Utrecht | 6% | 8,70 | -5,0% |
| Match nul ✓ | 11% | 6,00 | -6,0% |
| Victoire PSV | 83% | 1,30 | +6,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Eredivisie :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 54% | 1,53 | -11,0% |
| PSV marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 96% | 1,05 | +1,0% (value bet) |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 51% | 1,70 | -8,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 49% | 2,05 | 0,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 90% | 1,11 | 0,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 75% | 1,40 | +4,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 55% | 2,20 | +10,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 25% | 2,82 | -10,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 45% | 1,60 | -17,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Utrecht vs PSV :
| Statistique | Utrecht | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,64 | 1,32 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 43% | 57% |
| Tirs | 18 | 14 |
| Tirs cadrés | 5 | 6 |
| Corners | 7 | 3 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 47 | 36 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -9 | 18 | 1.33 | DWLDLW | 6.1/10 |
| PSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | +52 | 51 | 2.51 | WWWWDW | 2/10 |
Coming into this game, Utrecht has picked up 9 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Utrecht has scored 6 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Superb stuff from Utrecht at home, where they are currently unbeaten in 5 games. Can they go another game without defeat?
PSV's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop Utrecht from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 5 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 2 home matches this season.
Momentum is really building for Utrecht as they have now gone 9 games without losing. They have won 2 of the last 5 games they have played.
Utrecht is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against PSV, having won 2 and drawn 3. They have scored 6 goals in those 5 games.
Utrecht has fired blanks in 8 games this season. That's 47% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored an intriguing 6 goals.
In the last 5 matches for Utrecht, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 8 matches (47% of all matches) involving Utrecht has seen BTTS landing.
Coming into this game, PSV has picked up 15 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 3 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. PSV has scored 14 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Incredible away form is being show by PSV and those travelling fans must be loving it. They have won the last 8 and is unbeaten in 8 away trips. Can Utrecht end their fairytale away days?
Scoring is not an issue for PSV when they play away from home. They have scored in the last 8 games they have played on the road. Can Utrecht stop this run?
Momentum is really building for PSV as they have now gone 17 games without losing. They have won 5 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 17 games for PSV ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
PSV has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 2 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 11 occasions.
PSV is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Utrecht, having won 5 and drawn 0. They have scored 14 goals in those 5 games.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for PSV has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 5 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 6/17 games for PSV this season.
It's likely that PSV will score today, as they have netted in the last 17 games coming into this one and have scored 14 goals in the last five games.
Utrecht a fait match nul contre PSV 1-1 en Eredivisie le dimanche 21 janvier 2024 à 11:15 au Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht). xG du match : 1.6 pour Utrecht, 1.3 pour PSV. Possession : 43% pour Utrecht, 57% pour PSV. Tirs : 18 (dont 5 cadrés) pour Utrecht, 14 (dont 6 cadrés) pour PSV. Indice de forme : Utrecht 6.1/10, PSV 2/10. Sur 25 confrontations directes : 2 victoires Utrecht, 4 nuls, 19 victoires PSV.
Score final : Utrecht 1-1 PSV. L'algorithme avait prevu PSV (83%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.