Dunkerque vs Pau - Ligue 2 - Journee 28 - samedi 9 mars 2024 à 18:00
Stade : Stade Marcel-Tribut (Dunkerque)
Score final : Dunkerque 1-0 Pau
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Dunkerque favori avec 38% de chances de victoire (nul 33%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 1.6 pour Dunkerque, 0.8 pour Pau. Dunkerque a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Dunkerque ✓ | 38% | 2,31 | -5,0% |
| Match nul | 33% | 3,25 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Victoire Pau | 29% | 3,13 | -3,0% |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Ligue 2 :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 73% | 1,29 | -5,0% |
| Pau marque (AS) manqué ✗ | 67% | 1,38 | -5,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) manqué ✗ | 49% | 1,78 | -7,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) réalisé ✓ | 51% | 1,95 | 0,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) manqué ✗ | 69% | 1,33 | -6,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 43% | 2,00 | -7,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 22% | 3,60 | -6,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 57% | 1,72 | -1,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 78% | 1,28 | 0,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Dunkerque vs Pau :
| Statistique | Dunkerque | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,62 | 0,83 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 59% | 41% |
| Tirs | 13 | 6 |
| Tirs cadrés | 7 | 3 |
| Corners | 7 | 2 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 69 | 32 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -13 | 31 | 1.32 | WLLWDD | 7.5/10 |
| Pau | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | -1 | 37 | 1.39 | DDDLWL | 3/10 |
Coming into this game, Dunkerque has picked up 11 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Dunkerque has scored 7 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Dunkerque has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 4 games.
Pau's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop Dunkerque from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 4 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 7 home matches this season.
Momentum is really building for Dunkerque as they have now gone 8 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.
We might see some goals in this one, with the last 3 games involving Dunkerque has ended with 3 or more goals being scored. Will Pau get in on the action today? There has been a total of 11 goals in the last 5 games for Dunkerque, both home and away.
Dunkerque is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Pau, having won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 7 goals in those 5 games.
Dunkerque has fired blanks in 11 games this season. That's 41% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored an intriguing 7 goals.
In the last 5 matches for Dunkerque, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 11 matches (41% of all matches) involving Dunkerque has seen BTTS landing.
Coming into this game, Pau has picked up 5 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Pau has scored 6 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Pau has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 3 games.
In the last 5 matches for Pau, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 16 matches (59% of all matches) involving Pau has seen BTTS landing.
Dunkerque a battu Pau 1-0 en Ligue 2 le samedi 9 mars 2024 à 18:00 au Stade Marcel-Tribut (Dunkerque). xG du match : 1.6 pour Dunkerque, 0.8 pour Pau. Possession : 59% pour Dunkerque, 41% pour Pau. Tirs : 13 (dont 7 cadrés) pour Dunkerque, 6 (dont 3 cadrés) pour Pau. Indice de forme : Dunkerque 7.5/10, Pau 3/10. Sur 13 confrontations directes : 3 victoires Dunkerque, 6 nuls, 4 victoires Pau.
Score final : Dunkerque 1-0 Pau. L'algorithme avait prevu Dunkerque (38%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.