Mainz 05 vs Bayern München - Bundesliga - Journee 14 - samedi 14 décembre 2024 à 14:30
Stade : MEWA ARENA (Mainz)
Score final : Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern München
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Bayern München favori avec 67% de chances de victoire (nul 19%). L'algorithme avait prévu Bayern München favori, le résultat ne l'a pas suivi.
xG du match : 1.1 pour Mainz 05, 0.9 pour Bayern München. Mainz 05 a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Mainz 05 ✓ | 14% | 7,50 | +1,0% (value bet) |
| Match nul | 19% | 5,00 | -1,0% |
| Victoire Bayern München | 67% | 1,36 | -7,0% |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Bundesliga :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 62% | 1,50 | -5,0% |
| Bayern München marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 91% | 1,07 | -2,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 57% | 1,67 | -3,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 43% | 2,10 | -5,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 85% | 1,18 | 0,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) réalisé ✓ | 65% | 1,53 | 0,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 43% | 2,06 | -6,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) manqué ✗ | 35% | 2,40 | -7,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 57% | 1,80 | +1,0% (value bet) |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Mainz 05 vs Bayern München :
| Statistique | Mainz 05 | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,09 | 0,91 |
| Buts marqués | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 31% | 69% |
| Tirs | 8 | 7 |
| Tirs cadrés | 4 | 1 |
| Corners | 3 | 2 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 42 | 52 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +5 | 19 | 1.24 | DDWWWL | 6.4/10 |
| Bayern München | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | +31 | 33 | 1.99 | WWWWDW | 9.4/10 |
Coming into this game, Mainz 05 has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Mainz 05 has scored 11 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Mainz 05 has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 3 games.
Bayern München's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop Mainz 05 from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 3 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 2 home matches this season.
Il est possible que nous voyions quelques buts ici, les 4 derniers matchs de Mainz 05 s'étant terminés avec 2 buts ou plus inscrits.
Mainz 05 has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 5 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 4 occasions.
Mainz 05 will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Bayern München, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Mainz 05 has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 3 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 7/13 games for Mainz 05 this season.
It's likely that Mainz 05 will score today, as they have netted in the last 4 games coming into this one and have scored 11 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, Bayern München has picked up 13 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Bayern München has scored 12 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Superb stuff from Bayern München away from home, where they are currently unbeaten in 7 games. Can they go another game without defeat?
Scoring is not an issue for Bayern München when they play away from home. They have scored in the last 7 games they have played on the road. Can Mainz 05 stop this run?
Momentum is really building for Bayern München as they have now gone 13 games without losing. They have won 4 of the last 5 games they have played.
Bayern München has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 3 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 7 occasions.
Bayern München is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Mainz 05, having won 4 and drawn 1. They have scored 12 goals in those 5 games.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Bayern München has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 4 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 6/13 games for Bayern München this season.
It's likely that Bayern München will score today, as they have netted in the last 13 games coming into this one and have scored 12 goals in the last five games.
Mainz 05 a battu Bayern München 2-1 en Bundesliga le samedi 14 décembre 2024 à 14:30 au MEWA ARENA (Mainz). xG du match : 1.1 pour Mainz 05, 0.9 pour Bayern München. Possession : 31% pour Mainz 05, 69% pour Bayern München. Tirs : 8 (dont 4 cadrés) pour Mainz 05, 7 (dont 1 cadré) pour Bayern München. Indice de forme : Mainz 05 6.4/10, Bayern München 9.4/10. Sur 34 confrontations directes : 7 victoires Mainz 05, 2 nuls, 25 victoires Bayern München.
Score final : Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern München. L'algorithme avait prevu Bayern München (67%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.