Ulm vs Hamburger SV - 2. Bundesliga - Journee 16 - samedi 14 décembre 2024 à 12:00
Stade : Donaustadion (Ulm)
Score final : Ulm 1-1 Hamburger SV
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Hamburger SV favori avec 54% de chances de victoire (nul 27%). L'algorithme avait prévu Hamburger SV favori, le résultat ne l'a pas suivi.
xG du match : 1.4 pour Ulm, 0.8 pour Hamburger SV. Ulm a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Ulm | 19% | 3,75 | -8,0% |
| Match nul ✓ | 27% | 3,60 | -1,0% |
| Victoire Hamburger SV | 54% | 1,91 | +2,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de 2. Bundesliga :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulm marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 59% | 1,36 | -15,0% |
| Hamburger SV marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 82% | 1,13 | -6,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 48% | 1,62 | -14,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 52% | 2,20 | +7,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 73% | 1,22 | -9,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 48% | 1,63 | -13,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 26% | 2,75 | -10,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 52% | 2,10 | +4,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 74% | 1,42 | +4,0% (value bet) |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Ulm vs Hamburger SV :
| Statistique | Ulm | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,35 | 0,8 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 50% | 50% |
| Tirs | 12 | 6 |
| Tirs cadrés | 4 | 2 |
| Corners | 5 | 2 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 42 | 37 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulm | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 12 | 0.91 | DDDDDL | 3.1/10 |
| Hamburger SV | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +11 | 24 | 1.31 | LDLDWD | 3.8/10 |
Coming into this game, Ulm has picked up 4 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Ulm has scored 5 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Ulm has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 2 games.
Ulm will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Hamburger SV, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 0 and drawn 4
Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Ulm recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?
Ulm has fired blanks in 6 games this season. That's 40% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored an intriguing 5 goals.
In the last 5 matches for Ulm, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 9 matches (60% of all matches) involving Ulm has seen BTTS landing.
Coming into this game, Hamburger SV has picked up 6 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 5 of those games. Hamburger SV has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Scoring is not an issue for Hamburger SV when they play away from home. They have scored in the last 5 games they have played on the road. Can Ulm stop this run?
Hamburger SV a enchaîné une bonne série de forme et est maintenant sur une série de 3 matchs sans défaite.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 12 games for Hamburger SV ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Hamburger SV will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Ulm, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 1 and drawn 3
The last 5 games for Hamburger SV has each seen both teams scoring. Will they improve their defence, or will we see more of the same here? This season Hamburger SV has seen a total of 12/15 fixtures end with both teams scoring. That's 80% of all matches played.
It's likely that Hamburger SV will score today, as they have netted in the last 12 games coming into this one and have scored 9 goals in the last five games.
Ulm a fait match nul contre Hamburger SV 1-1 en 2. Bundesliga le samedi 14 décembre 2024 à 12:00 au Donaustadion (Ulm). xG du match : 1.4 pour Ulm, 0.8 pour Hamburger SV. Possession : 50% pour Ulm, 50% pour Hamburger SV. Tirs : 12 (dont 4 cadrés) pour Ulm, 6 (dont 2 cadrés) pour Hamburger SV. Indice de forme : Ulm 3.1/10, Hamburger SV 3.8/10.
Score final : Ulm 1-1 Hamburger SV. L'algorithme avait prevu Hamburger SV (54%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.