Alverca vs Casa Pia - Liga Portugal - Journee 11 - samedi 7 novembre 2026 à 18:00
Stade : Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Selon l'algorithme Pronalgo, Alverca est favori de ce match avec 47% de chances de s'imposer.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Alverca | 47% | 1,58 | -16,0% |
| Match nul | 29% | 3,73 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Victoire Casa Pia | 24% | 4,35 | +1,0% (value bet) |
Un edge positif signale un value bet : la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépasse la probabilité implicite de la cote (1/cote).
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Liga Portugal :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca marque (HS) | 79% | 1,16 | -7,0% |
| Casa Pia marque (AS) | 65% | 1,55 | 0,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) | 51% | 1,85 | -3,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) | 49% | 1,85 | -5,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) | 73% | 1,28 | -5,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) | 48% | 1,92 | -4,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) | 26% | 3,28 | -4,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) | 52% | 1,90 | -1,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) | 74% | 1,33 | -1,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Alverca vs Casa Pia :
| Statistique | Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,22 | 1,13 |
| Buts marqués | 1,3 | 0,5 |
| Possession | 40,4% | 43,2% |
| Tirs | 11,5 | 10 |
| Tirs cadrés | 3,8 | 2,7 |
| Corners | 4,6 | 3,9 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 30,5 | 41,8 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 | 1.22 | LWWWLL | 4.3/10 |
| Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | 1.13 | DLWLWL | 2.9/10 |
Coming into this game, Alverca has picked up 9 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Alverca has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Alverca recently, with the side failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Alverca has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 3 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 6/10 games for Alverca this season.
Alverca will need to improve their attack if they're to get anything out of this game. They have not scored in the last 2 matches. During the last five games they have scored 8 times and overall this season they have scored 1.3 goals per game.
Coming into this game, Casa Pia has picked up 6 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Casa Pia has scored 5 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Casa Pia has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 3 games.
Les choses n'ont pas été si faciles devant le but pour Casa Pia récemment, l'équipe n'ayant pas réussi à marquer lors de 2 de ses 5 derniers matchs. L'entraîneur changera-t-il sa tactique aujourd'hui, ou lancera-t-il un autre attaquant ?
Casa Pia has fired blanks in 7 games this season. That's 70% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 5 goals.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Casa Pia has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 2 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/10 games for Casa Pia this season.
Alverca affronte Casa Pia en Liga Portugal (journée 11) le samedi 7 novembre 2026 à 18:00 au Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. xG moyen : 1.2 pour Alverca, 1.1 pour Casa Pia. Buts moyens/match : 1.3 pour Alverca, 0.5 pour Casa Pia. Possession : 40.4% pour Alverca, 43.2% pour Casa Pia. Tirs : 11.5 (dont 3.8 cadrés) pour Alverca, 10 (dont 2.7 cadrés) pour Casa Pia. Indice de forme : Alverca 4.3/10, Casa Pia 2.9/10. Sur 2 confrontations directes : 2 victoires Alverca, 0 nul, 0 victoire Casa Pia.
Notre algorithme favorise Alverca (47%) pour ce match. Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.