PSG vs Metz - Ligue 1 - Journee 17 - mercredi 20 décembre 2023 à 20:00
Stade : Parc des Princes (Paris)
Score final : PSG 3-1 Metz
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit PSG favori avec 67% de chances de victoire (nul 19%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 1.7 pour PSG, 0.6 pour Metz. PSG a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire PSG ✓ | 67% | 1,13 | -21,0% |
| Match nul | 19% | 8,00 | +7,0% (value bet) |
| Victoire Metz | 14% | 19,00 | +9,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Ligue 1 :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 91% | 1,03 | -6,0% |
| Metz marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 64% | 1,90 | +11,0% (value bet) |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 58% | 2,00 | +8,0% (value bet) |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 42% | 1,75 | -15,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 86% | 1,09 | -6,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) réalisé ✓ | 67% | 1,36 | -7,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) réalisé ✓ | 45% | 2,05 | -4,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) manqué ✗ | 33% | 3,10 | +1,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) manqué ✗ | 55% | 1,70 | -4,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour PSG vs Metz :
| Statistique | PSG | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,73 | 0,57 |
| Buts marqués | 3 | 1 |
| Possession | 75% | 25% |
| Tirs | 14 | 4 |
| Tirs cadrés | 6 | 2 |
| Corners | 5 | 5 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 93 | 24 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | +26 | 37 | 1.74 | WWDLWW | 9.4/10 |
| Metz | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -9 | 16 | 1.09 | DWWLLL | 2.8/10 |
Coming into this game, PSG has picked up 15 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 3 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. PSG has scored 15 times in the last 5 fixtures.
PSG is in great form, and the home fans will be loving it. They have won the last 5 games that they have played at home.
Metz's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop PSG from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 7 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 1 home matches this season.
Momentum is really building for PSG as they have now gone 10 games without losing. They have won 5 of the last 5 games they have played.
Il est possible que nous voyions quelques buts ici, les 8 derniers matchs du PSG s'étant terminés avec 2 buts ou plus inscrits.
PSG a gardé sa cage inviolée 3 fois lors de ses 5 derniers matchs, encaissant 3 buts sur cette période. Globalement cette saison, sa défense a réalisé 7 clean sheets.
PSG is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Metz, having won 5 and drawn 0. They have scored 15 goals in those 5 games.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for PSG has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 5 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 8/15 games for PSG this season.
It's likely that PSG will score today, as they have netted in the last 8 games coming into this one and have scored 15 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, Metz has picked up 6 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Metz has scored 6 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Metz recently, with the side failing to score in 3 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?
Metz has fired blanks in 7 games this season. That's 44% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 6 goals.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Metz has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 2 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 7/16 games for Metz this season.
Metz will need to improve their attack if they're to get anything out of this game. They have not scored in the last 3 matches. During the last five games they have scored 6 times and overall this season they have scored 0.94 goals per game.
PSG a battu Metz 3-1 en Ligue 1 le mercredi 20 décembre 2023 à 20:00 au Parc des Princes (Paris). xG du match : 1.7 pour PSG, 0.6 pour Metz. Possession : 75% pour PSG, 25% pour Metz. Tirs : 14 (dont 6 cadrés) pour PSG, 4 (dont 2 cadrés) pour Metz. Indice de forme : PSG 9.4/10, Metz 2.8/10. Sur 11 confrontations directes : 11 victoires PSG, 0 nul, 0 victoire Metz.
Score final : PSG 3-1 Metz. L'algorithme avait prevu PSG (67%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.