Ajax vs PSV - Eredivisie - Journee 20 - samedi 3 février 2024 à 19:00
Stade : Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)
Score final : Ajax 1-1 PSV
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit PSV favori avec 55% de chances de victoire (nul 24%). L'algorithme avait prévu PSV favori, le résultat ne l'a pas suivi.
xG du match : 1.4 pour Ajax, 1.6 pour PSV. PSV a créé davantage de danger.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Ajax | 21% | 3,22 | -10,0% |
| Match nul ✓ | 24% | 3,80 | -2,0% |
| Victoire PSV | 55% | 2,09 | +7,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Eredivisie :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 68% | 1,24 | -13,0% |
| PSV marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 86% | 1,14 | -2,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 58% | 1,44 | -11,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 42% | 2,63 | +4,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 81% | 1,12 | -8,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 60% | 1,42 | -10,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 37% | 2,10 | -11,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 40% | 2,74 | +4,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 63% | 1,67 | +3,0% (value bet) |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Ajax vs PSV :
| Statistique | Ajax | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,4 | 1,63 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 49% | 51% |
| Tirs | 14 | 19 |
| Tirs cadrés | 5 | 6 |
| Corners | 3 | 5 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 41 | 53 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | +11 | 34 | 1.91 | LWDWWD | 9.3/10 |
| PSV | 19 | 18 | 1 | 0 | +54 | 55 | 2.41 | WWWWDW | 9.2/10 |
Coming into this game, Ajax has picked up 13 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 5 of those games. Ajax has scored 15 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Superb stuff from Ajax at home, where they are currently unbeaten in 6 games. Can they go another game without defeat?
PSV's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop Ajax from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 7 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 1 home matches this season.
Momentum is really building for Ajax as they have now gone 11 games without losing. They have won 4 of the last 5 games they have played.
Il est possible que nous voyons plusieurs buts ici, les 16 derniers matchs de l'Ajax s'étant terminés avec 2 buts ou plus.
Ajax is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against PSV, having won 4 and drawn 1. They have scored 15 goals in those 5 games.
The last 5 games for Ajax has each seen both teams scoring. Will they improve their defence, or will we see more of the same here? This season Ajax has seen a total of 15/19 fixtures end with both teams scoring. That's 79% of all matches played.
It's likely that Ajax will score today, as they have netted in the last 14 games coming into this one and have scored 15 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, PSV has picked up 13 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. PSV has scored 12 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Superb stuff from PSV away from home, where they are currently unbeaten in 9 games. Can they go another game without defeat?
Scoring is not an issue for PSV when they play away from home. They have scored in the last 9 games they have played on the road. Can Ajax stop this run?
Momentum is really building for PSV as they have now gone 19 games without losing. They have won 4 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 19 games for PSV ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
PSV has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 2 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 12 occasions.
PSV is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Ajax, having won 4 and drawn 1. They have scored 12 goals in those 5 games.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for PSV has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 4 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 7/19 games for PSV this season.
It's likely that PSV will score today, as they have netted in the last 19 games coming into this one and have scored 12 goals in the last five games.
Ajax a fait match nul contre PSV 1-1 en Eredivisie le samedi 3 février 2024 à 19:00 au Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam). xG du match : 1.4 pour Ajax, 1.6 pour PSV. Possession : 49% pour Ajax, 51% pour PSV. Tirs : 14 (dont 5 cadrés) pour Ajax, 19 (dont 6 cadrés) pour PSV. Indice de forme : Ajax 9.3/10, PSV 9.2/10. Sur 30 confrontations directes : 12 victoires Ajax, 6 nuls, 12 victoires PSV.
Score final : Ajax 1-1 PSV. L'algorithme avait prevu PSV (55%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.