AC Milan vs Napoli - Serie A - Journee 24 - dimanche 11 février 2024 à 19:45
Stade : Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano)
Score final : AC Milan 1-0 Napoli
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit AC Milan favori avec 53% de chances de victoire (nul 28%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 1.4 pour AC Milan, 1.2 pour Napoli. AC Milan a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire AC Milan ✓ | 53% | 1,95 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Match nul | 28% | 3,50 | -1,0% |
| Victoire Napoli | 19% | 3,60 | -9,0% |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Serie A :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 80% | 1,17 | -5,0% |
| Napoli marque (AS) manqué ✗ | 58% | 1,38 | -14,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) manqué ✗ | 46% | 1,67 | -14,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) réalisé ✓ | 54% | 2,10 | +6,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) manqué ✗ | 71% | 1,26 | -8,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 45% | 1,81 | -10,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 24% | 3,00 | -9,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 55% | 1,90 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 76% | 1,40 | +5,0% (value bet) |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour AC Milan vs Napoli :
| Statistique | AC Milan | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,37 | 1,2 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 40% | 60% |
| Tirs | 11 | 13 |
| Tirs cadrés | 7 | 3 |
| Corners | 1 | 2 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 33 | 56 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 23 | 15 | 4 | 4 | +19 | 49 | 1.43 | WWWWDW | 9/10 |
| Napoli | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | +6 | 35 | 1.68 | LDDLDD | 4.3/10 |
Coming into this game, AC Milan has picked up 13 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. AC Milan has scored 14 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Superb stuff from AC Milan at home, where they are currently unbeaten in 6 games. Can they go another game without defeat?
Napoli's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop AC Milan from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 6 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 2 home matches this season.
Momentum is really building for AC Milan as they have now gone 8 games without losing. They have won 4 of the last 5 games they have played.
We might see some goals in this one, with the last 5 games involving AC Milan has ended with 3 or more goals being scored. Will Napoli get in on the action today? There has been a total of 21 goals in the last 5 games for AC Milan, both home and away.
AC Milan is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Napoli, having won 4 and drawn 1. They have scored 14 goals in those 5 games.
In the last 5 matches for AC Milan, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 13 matches (57% of all matches) involving AC Milan has seen BTTS landing.
It's likely that AC Milan will score today, as they have netted in the last 12 games coming into this one and have scored 14 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, Napoli has picked up 8 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Napoli has scored 4 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Napoli a enchaîné une bonne série de forme et reste sur 3 matchs sans défaite.
Napoli will be looking to keep up the momentum today against AC Milan, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 2 and drawn 2
Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Napoli recently, with the side failing to score in 3 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?
Napoli has fired blanks in 8 games this season. That's 36% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 4 goals.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Napoli has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 2 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 11/22 games for Napoli this season.
AC Milan a battu Napoli 1-0 en Serie A le dimanche 11 février 2024 à 19:45 au Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano). xG du match : 1.4 pour AC Milan, 1.2 pour Napoli. Possession : 40% pour AC Milan, 60% pour Napoli. Tirs : 11 (dont 7 cadrés) pour AC Milan, 13 (dont 3 cadrés) pour Napoli. Indice de forme : AC Milan 9/10, Napoli 4.3/10. Sur 34 confrontations directes : 9 victoires AC Milan, 13 nuls, 12 victoires Napoli.
Score final : AC Milan 1-0 Napoli. L'algorithme avait prevu AC Milan (53%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.