Lens vs Brest - Ligue 1 - Journee 25 - samedi 9 mars 2024 à 20:00
Stade : Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)
Score final : Lens 1-0 Brest
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Lens favori avec 38% de chances de victoire (nul 31%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 0.7 pour Lens, 1.2 pour Brest. Brest a créé davantage de danger.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Lens ✓ | 38% | 1,89 | -15,0% |
| Match nul | 31% | 3,38 | +1,0% (value bet) |
| Victoire Brest | 31% | 3,92 | +5,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Ligue 1 :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 76% | 1,26 | -3,0% |
| Brest marque (AS) manqué ✗ | 72% | 1,49 | +5,0% (value bet) |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) manqué ✗ | 55% | 1,95 | +4,0% (value bet) |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) réalisé ✓ | 45% | 1,80 | -11,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) manqué ✗ | 75% | 1,38 | +3,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) manqué ✗ | 51% | 2,07 | +3,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 28% | 4,00 | +3,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) réalisé ✓ | 49% | 1,68 | -11,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 72% | 1,26 | -7,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Lens vs Brest :
| Statistique | Lens | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 0,74 | 1,2 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 40% | 60% |
| Tirs | 7 | 11 |
| Tirs cadrés | 3 | 4 |
| Corners | 2 | 4 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 29 | 55 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +9 | 39 | 1.53 | LWLWDD | 7.3/10 |
| Brest | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | +17 | 46 | 1.58 | LLWDDW | 7.4/10 |
Coming into this game, Lens has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Lens has scored 10 times in the last 5 fixtures.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 4 games for Lens ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Lens will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Brest, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1
In the last 5 matches for Lens, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 9 matches (38% of all matches) involving Lens has seen BTTS landing.
It's likely that Lens will score today, as they have netted in the last 6 games coming into this one and have scored 10 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, Brest has picked up 11 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 1 of those games. Brest has scored 6 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Superb stuff from Brest away from home, where they are currently unbeaten in 6 games. Can they go another game without defeat?
Scoring is not an issue for Brest when they play away from home. They have scored in the last 6 games they have played on the road. Can Lens stop this run?
Momentum is really building for Brest as they have now gone 13 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.
Brest has kept 4 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 1 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 12 occasions.
Brest is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Lens, having won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 6 goals in those 5 games.
Just 1 of the last 5 games for Brest has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 3 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 9/24 games for Brest this season.
It's likely that Brest will score today, as they have netted in the last 4 games coming into this one and have scored 6 goals in the last five games.
Lens a battu Brest 1-0 en Ligue 1 le samedi 9 mars 2024 à 20:00 au Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). xG du match : 0.7 pour Lens, 1.2 pour Brest. Possession : 40% pour Lens, 60% pour Brest. Tirs : 7 (dont 3 cadrés) pour Lens, 11 (dont 4 cadrés) pour Brest. Indice de forme : Lens 7.3/10, Brest 7.4/10. Sur 21 confrontations directes : 8 victoires Lens, 4 nuls, 9 victoires Brest.
Score final : Lens 1-0 Brest. L'algorithme avait prevu Lens (38%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.