Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 - Bundesliga - Journee 22 - vendredi 13 février 2026 à 19:30
Stade : Signal-Iduna-Park
Score final : Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Mainz 05
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Borussia Dortmund favori avec 57% de chances de victoire (nul 23%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 1.9 pour Borussia Dortmund, 1.2 pour Mainz 05. Borussia Dortmund a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Borussia Dortmund ✓ | 57% | 1,57 | -7,0% |
| Match nul | 23% | 4,33 | 0,0% |
| Victoire Mainz 05 | 19% | 4,80 | -2,0% |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Bundesliga :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 86% | 1,10 | -5,0% |
| Mainz 05 marque (AS) manqué ✗ | 66% | 1,42 | -4,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) manqué ✗ | 57% | 1,65 | -4,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) réalisé ✓ | 43% | 2,15 | -4,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 81% | 1,14 | -7,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) réalisé ✓ | 59% | 1,63 | -2,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) réalisé ✓ | 37% | 2,50 | -3,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) manqué ✗ | 41% | 2,30 | -2,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) manqué ✗ | 63% | 1,50 | -4,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 :
| Statistique | Borussia Dortmund | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,88 | 1,2 |
| Buts marqués | 4 | 0 |
| Possession | 55% | 45% |
| Tirs | 14 | 10 |
| Tirs cadrés | 8 | 5 |
| Corners | 7 | 2 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 60 | 30 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | +23 | 48 | 1.60 | DWWWWW | 9.3/10 |
| Mainz 05 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -8 | 21 | 1.33 | DWLWWW | 7.4/10 |
Coming into this game, Borussia Dortmund has picked up 15 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 3 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Borussia Dortmund has scored 14 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Borussia Dortmund is in great form, and the home fans will be loving it. They have won the last 5 games that they have played at home.
Superb stuff from Borussia Dortmund at home, where they are currently unbeaten in 10 games. Can they go another game without defeat?
Le Borussia Dortmund aura à cœur de marquer aujourd'hui et cherchera à maintenir son record de buts inscrits lors de chaque match à domicile cette saison.
Borussia Dortmund has had no trouble finding the back of the net recently and has scored in the last 10 home games. They have failed to find the net in 0 home game this season.
Momentum is really building for Borussia Dortmund as they have now gone 14 games without losing. They have won 5 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 12 games for Borussia Dortmund ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Borussia Dortmund is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Mainz 05, having won 5 and drawn 0. They have scored 14 goals in those 5 games.
In the last 5 matches for Borussia Dortmund, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 11 matches (52% of all matches) involving Borussia Dortmund has seen BTTS landing.
It's likely that Borussia Dortmund will score today, as they have netted in the last 21 games coming into this one and have scored 14 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, Mainz 05 has picked up 12 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.4 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Mainz 05 has scored 10 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Mainz 05 has put together a good run of form and has now gone 3 games without defeat.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 6 games for Mainz 05 ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Mainz 05 will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Borussia Dortmund, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 4 and drawn 0
Mainz 05 has fired blanks in 8 games this season. That's 38% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored an intriguing 10 goals.
In the last 5 matches for Mainz 05, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 12 matches (57% of all matches) involving Mainz 05 has seen BTTS landing.
It's likely that Mainz 05 will score today, as they have netted in the last 6 games coming into this one and have scored 10 goals in the last five games.
Borussia Dortmund a battu Mainz 05 4-0 en Bundesliga le vendredi 13 février 2026 à 19:30 au Signal-Iduna-Park. xG du match : 1.9 pour Borussia Dortmund, 1.2 pour Mainz 05. Possession : 55% pour Borussia Dortmund, 45% pour Mainz 05. Tirs : 14 (dont 8 cadrés) pour Borussia Dortmund, 10 (dont 5 cadrés) pour Mainz 05. Indice de forme : Borussia Dortmund 9.3/10, Mainz 05 7.4/10. Sur 35 confrontations directes : 21 victoires Borussia Dortmund, 7 nuls, 7 victoires Mainz 05.
Score final : Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Mainz 05. L'algorithme avait prevu Borussia Dortmund (57%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.