Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad - La Liga - Journee 24 - samedi 14 février 2026 à 20:00
Stade : Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Score final : Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Real Madrid favori avec 75% de chances de victoire (nul 16%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 1.4 pour Real Madrid, 1.4 pour Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad a créé davantage de danger.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Real Madrid ✓ | 75% | 1,34 | 0,0% |
| Match nul | 16% | 5,75 | -1,0% |
| Victoire Real Sociedad | 9% | 9,00 | -2,0% |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de La Liga :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 92% | 1,04 | -4,0% |
| Real Sociedad marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 51% | 1,55 | -14,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 47% | 1,80 | -9,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 53% | 1,92 | +1,0% (value bet) |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 83% | 1,12 | -6,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) réalisé ✓ | 62% | 1,44 | -7,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) réalisé ✓ | 39% | 2,10 | -9,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) manqué ✗ | 38% | 2,72 | +1,0% (value bet) |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) manqué ✗ | 61% | 1,65 | 0,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad :
| Statistique | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,35 | 1,37 |
| Buts marqués | 4 | 1 |
| Possession | 52% | 48% |
| Tirs | 11 | 13 |
| Tirs cadrés | 5 | 3 |
| Corners | 4 | 6 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 42 | 46 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 23 | 18 | 3 | 2 | +31 | 57 | 2.18 | WWWWWW | 2/10 |
| Real Sociedad | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | +2 | 31 | 1.51 | DWWWDW | 7.9/10 |
Coming into this game, Real Madrid has picked up 15 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 3 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Real Madrid has scored 13 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Le Real Madrid est en grande forme, et les supporters à domicile doivent apprécier. Ils ont remporté les 4 derniers matchs qu'ils ont joués à domicile.
Real Sociedad's defence will have to be at their best today if they're to stop Real Madrid from scoring. The home side has scored in the last 4 games in front of their own fans. They have failed to score in 1 home matches this season.
Momentum is really building for Real Madrid as they have now gone 7 games without losing. They have won 5 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 11 games for Real Madrid ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Real Madrid has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 games, conceding 2 goals during this period. Overall this season, their defence has kept a clean sheet on 11 occasions.
Real Madrid is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Real Sociedad, having won 5 and drawn 0. They have scored 13 goals in those 5 games.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Real Madrid has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 5 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 11/23 games for Real Madrid this season.
It's likely that Real Madrid will score today, as they have netted in the last 7 games coming into this one and have scored 13 goals in the last five games.
Coming into this game, Real Sociedad has picked up 13 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.6 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 5 of those games. Real Sociedad has scored 11 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Real Sociedad a récemment aimé jouer à l'extérieur, l'équipe étant actuellement invaincue lors de ses 3 derniers matchs.
Momentum is really building for Real Sociedad as they have now gone 7 games without losing. They have won 4 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 8 games for Real Sociedad ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Real Sociedad is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Real Madrid, having won 4 and drawn 1. They have scored 11 goals in those 5 games.
The last 5 games for Real Sociedad has each seen both teams scoring. Will they improve their defence, or will we see more of the same here? This season Real Sociedad has seen a total of 19/23 fixtures end with both teams scoring. That's 83% of all matches played.
It's likely that Real Sociedad will score today, as they have netted in the last 8 games coming into this one and have scored 11 goals in the last five games.
Real Madrid a battu Real Sociedad 4-1 en La Liga le samedi 14 février 2026 à 20:00 au Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. xG du match : 1.4 pour Real Madrid, 1.4 pour Real Sociedad. Possession : 52% pour Real Madrid, 48% pour Real Sociedad. Tirs : 11 (dont 5 cadrés) pour Real Madrid, 13 (dont 3 cadrés) pour Real Sociedad. Indice de forme : Real Madrid 2/10, Real Sociedad 7.9/10. Sur 34 confrontations directes : 24 victoires Real Madrid, 5 nuls, 5 victoires Real Sociedad.
Score final : Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad. L'algorithme avait prevu Real Madrid (75%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.