Belgique vs Italie - Ligue des Nations - Journee 6 - dimanche 15 novembre 2026 à 19:45
Stade : Stade Roi Baudouin
Selon l'algorithme Pronalgo, Belgique est favori de ce match avec 37% de chances de s'imposer.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Belgique | 37% | 2,18 | -9,0% |
| Match nul | 29% | 3,50 | 0,0% |
| Victoire Italie | 34% | 3,20 | +3,0% (value bet) |
Un edge positif signale un value bet : la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépasse la probabilité implicite de la cote (1/cote).
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Ligue des Nations :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgique marque (HS) | 76% | - | - |
| Italie marque (AS) | 75% | - | - |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) | 57% | 1,67 | -3,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) | 43% | 2,15 | -4,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) | 77% | 1,25 | -3,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) | 53% | 1,87 | 0,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) | 31% | 2,63 | -7,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) | 47% | 2,14 | 0,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) | 69% | 1,40 | -2,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Belgique vs Italie :
| Statistique | Belgique | Italie |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,45 | 1,61 |
| Buts marqués | 1,6 | 2,2 |
| Possession | 42,8% | 43,4% |
| Tirs | 13 | 15 |
| Tirs cadrés | 5,6 | 5,4 |
| Corners | 3,4 | 3,4 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 32,6 | 40,2 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgique | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 9 | 1.45 | LWLWLW | 5.9/10 |
| Italie | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 | 1.61 | LLWDWW | 6.4/10 |
Coming into this game, Belgium has picked up 9 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 1.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 2 of those games. Belgium has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.
We might see some goals in this one, with the last 3 games involving Belgium has ended with 3 or more goals being scored. Will Italy get in on the action today? There has been a total of 14 goals in the last 5 games for Belgium, both home and away.
Just 2 of the last 5 games for Belgium has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 3 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 2/5 games for Belgium this season.
Coming into this game, Italy has picked up 10 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Italy has scored 11 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Italy has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 2 games.
Momentum is really building for Italy as they have now gone 4 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 5 games for Italy ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Italy will be looking to keep up the momentum today against Belgium, having lost just 1 game from the last 5. They have won 3 and drawn 1
In the last 5 matches for Italy, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 4 matches (80% of all matches) involving Italy has seen BTTS landing.
It's likely that Italy will score today, as they have netted in the last 4 games coming into this one and have scored 11 goals in the last five games.
Belgique affronte Italie en Ligue des Nations (journée 6) le dimanche 15 novembre 2026 à 19:45 au Stade Roi Baudouin. xG moyen : 1.4 pour Belgique, 1.6 pour Italie. Buts moyens/match : 1.6 pour Belgique, 2.2 pour Italie. Possession : 42.8% pour Belgique, 43.4% pour Italie. Tirs : 13 (dont 5.6 cadrés) pour Belgique, 15 (dont 5.4 cadrés) pour Italie. Indice de forme : Belgique 5.9/10, Italie 6.4/10. Sur 7 confrontations directes : 2 victoires Belgique, 1 nul, 4 victoires Italie.
Notre algorithme favorise Belgique (37%) pour ce match. Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.