Napoli vs Salernitana - Serie A - Journee 20 - samedi 13 janvier 2024 à 14:00
Stade : Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Napoli)
Score final : Napoli 2-1 Salernitana
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Napoli favori avec 59% de chances de victoire (nul 24%). L'algorithme Pronalgo avait correctement prévu ce résultat.
xG du match : 2.1 pour Napoli, 0.7 pour Salernitana. Napoli a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Napoli ✓ | 59% | 1,24 | -22,0% |
| Match nul | 24% | 5,50 | +6,0% (value bet) |
| Victoire Salernitana | 17% | 9,55 | +7,0% (value bet) |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Serie A :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 85% | 1,07 | -8,0% |
| Salernitana marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 59% | 1,70 | 0,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 50% | 1,91 | -2,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 50% | 1,91 | -2,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 77% | 1,18 | -8,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) réalisé ✓ | 53% | 1,62 | -9,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 30% | 2,33 | -13,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) manqué ✗ | 47% | 2,11 | 0,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 70% | 1,61 | +8,0% (value bet) |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Napoli vs Salernitana :
| Statistique | Napoli | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 2,08 | 0,7 |
| Buts marqués | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 70% | 30% |
| Tirs | 21 | 7 |
| Tirs cadrés | 8 | 3 |
| Corners | 8 | 3 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 60 | 22 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | +4 | 28 | 1.69 | LDDLDD | 1.4/10 |
| Salernitana | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 12 | 1.13 | LLLDWL | 1.6/10 |
Coming into this game, Napoli has picked up 4 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in just 1 of those games. Napoli has scored 2 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Napoli has enjoyed playing at home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 2 games.
Things have not been going that well in front of goal for Napoli recently, with the side failing to score in 4 of the last 5 games. Will the manager change his tactics today, or throw in another forward?
Napoli has fired blanks in 7 games this season. That's 37% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored just 2 goals.
Just 1 of the last 5 games for Napoli has ended with both teams scoring. They have won 1 of those 5 games. Overall, BTTS has landed in 9/19 games for Napoli this season.
Napoli will need to improve their attack if they're to get anything out of this game. They have not scored in the last 3 matches. During the last five games they have scored 2 times and overall this season they have scored 1.47 goals per game.
Coming into this game, Salernitana has picked up 4 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 0.8 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 4 of those games. Salernitana has scored 6 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Salernitana has fired blanks in 8 games this season. That's 42% of games where they have not been able to find the back of the net. Do they need a new forward? In the last 5 games, they have scored an intriguing 6 goals.
In the last 5 matches for Salernitana, 4 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 10 matches (53% of all matches) involving Salernitana has seen BTTS landing.
It's likely that Salernitana will score today, as they have netted in the last 5 games coming into this one and have scored 6 goals in the last five games.
Napoli a battu Salernitana 2-1 en Serie A le samedi 13 janvier 2024 à 14:00 au Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Napoli). xG du match : 2.1 pour Napoli, 0.7 pour Salernitana. Possession : 70% pour Napoli, 30% pour Salernitana. Tirs : 21 (dont 8 cadrés) pour Napoli, 7 (dont 3 cadrés) pour Salernitana. Indice de forme : Napoli 1.4/10, Salernitana 1.6/10. Sur 6 confrontations directes : 5 victoires Napoli, 1 nul, 0 victoire Salernitana.
Score final : Napoli 2-1 Salernitana. L'algorithme avait prevu Napoli (59%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.