Toulouse vs Montpellier - Ligue 1 - Journee 32 - vendredi 3 mai 2024 à 17:00
Stade : Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Score final : Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier
Avant ce match, l'algorithme Pronalgo avait prédit Toulouse favori avec 37% de chances de victoire (nul 31%). L'algorithme avait prévu Toulouse favori, le résultat ne l'a pas suivi.
xG du match : 1.8 pour Toulouse, 0.8 pour Montpellier. Toulouse a dominé les occasions créées.
| Issue | Probabilité Pronalgo | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoire Toulouse | 37% | 2,07 | -11,0% |
| Match nul | 31% | 3,40 | +2,0% (value bet) |
| Victoire Montpellier ✓ | 32% | 3,10 | 0,0% |
L'issue réalisée est marquée d'un ✓. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité estimée par l'algorithme dépassait la probabilité implicite de la cote.
Les marchés buts analysés par notre modèle pour cette rencontre de Ligue 1 :
| Marché | Probabilité | Cote | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse marque (HS) réalisé ✓ | 77% | 1,18 | -8,0% |
| Montpellier marque (AS) réalisé ✓ | 75% | 1,30 | -2,0% |
| Les deux équipes marquent (BTTS Yes) réalisé ✓ | 58% | 1,62 | -4,0% |
| Au moins un clean sheet (BTTS No) manqué ✗ | 42% | 2,30 | -1,0% |
| Plus de 1,5 but (O1.5) réalisé ✓ | 78% | 1,24 | -3,0% |
| Plus de 2,5 buts (O2.5) réalisé ✓ | 55% | 1,70 | -4,0% |
| Plus de 3,5 buts (O3.5) manqué ✗ | 33% | 2,85 | -2,0% |
| Moins de 2,5 buts (U2.5) manqué ✗ | 45% | 2,10 | -3,0% |
| Moins de 3,5 buts (U3.5) réalisé ✓ | 67% | 1,44 | -2,0% |
Scores les plus probables selon Pronalgo pour Toulouse vs Montpellier :
| Statistique | Toulouse | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| xG (buts attendus) | 1,82 | 0,79 |
| Buts marqués | 1 | 2 |
| Possession | 63% | 37% |
| Tirs | 16 | 6 |
| Tirs cadrés | 6 | 4 |
| Corners | 8 | 0 |
| Attaques dangereuses | 97 | 25 |
| Equipe | J | V | N | D | +/- | Pts | xG/match | Forme | Indice de forme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -2 | 40 | 1.26 | WDWLWL | 6.7/10 |
| Montpellier | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 38 | 1.46 | LWWDWD | 6.3/10 |
Coming into this game, Toulouse has picked up 11 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Toulouse has scored 9 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Toulouse a aimé jouer à domicile récemment, l'équipe étant actuellement sur une série de 2 matchs sans défaite.
Momentum is really building for Toulouse as they have now gone 5 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.
We might see some goals in this one, with the last 3 games involving Toulouse has ended with 3 or more goals being scored. Will Montpellier get in on the action today? There has been a total of 13 goals in the last 5 games for Toulouse, both home and away.
Toulouse is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Montpellier, having won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 9 goals in those 5 games.
In the last 5 matches for Toulouse, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 19 matches (61% of all matches) involving Toulouse has seen BTTS landing.
Coming into this game, Montpellier has picked up 11 points from the last 5 games, both home and away. That's 2.2 points per game on average. BTTS has landed in an intriguing 3 of those games. Montpellier has scored 8 times in the last 5 fixtures.
Montpellier has enjoyed playing away from home recently, with the side currently unbeaten in 4 games.
Scoring is not an issue for Montpellier when they play away from home. They have scored in the last 6 games they have played on the road. Can Toulouse stop this run?
Momentum is really building for Montpellier as they have now gone 5 games without losing. They have won 3 of the last 5 games they have played.
It's possible we will see a couple of goals here, with the last 12 games for Montpellier ending with 2 goals or more being scored.
Montpellier is unbeaten in the last 5 games coming into this fixture against Toulouse, having won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 8 goals in those 5 games.
In the last 5 matches for Montpellier, 3 of those games has ended with both teams scoring. This season 16 matches (52% of all matches) involving Montpellier has seen BTTS landing.
It's likely that Montpellier will score today, as they have netted in the last 12 games coming into this one and have scored 8 goals in the last five games.
Toulouse a perdu contre Montpellier 1-2 en Ligue 1 le vendredi 3 mai 2024 à 17:00 au Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse). xG du match : 1.8 pour Toulouse, 0.8 pour Montpellier. Possession : 63% pour Toulouse, 37% pour Montpellier. Tirs : 16 (dont 6 cadrés) pour Toulouse, 6 (dont 4 cadrés) pour Montpellier. Indice de forme : Toulouse 6.7/10, Montpellier 6.3/10. Sur 26 confrontations directes : 8 victoires Toulouse, 5 nuls, 13 victoires Montpellier.
Score final : Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier. L'algorithme avait prevu Toulouse (37%). Retrouvez ci-dessous les principales recherches sur cette rencontre :
Retrouvez ce prono et tous les pronos du jour, recalcules a chaque mise a jour des donnees, sur Pronalgo.